Maximising Oil Production Through Data Modelling, Simulation and Optimisation.

The research work presented on this thesis provides an alternative tool for characterising oil fields under fluid injection by analysing historical production/injection rates. In particular polynomial and radial basis Non Linear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Model (NARX) models were developed; these models were capable of capturing the dynamics of an operating field in the North Sea. A Greedy Randomised Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) heuristic optimisation method was applied for estimating a future injection strategy. This approach is combined with a risk analysis methodology, a popular approach in financial mathematics. As a result, it is possible to estimate how likely it is to reach a production goal. According to the simulations, it is possible to increase oil production by 10% in one year by implementing a smart injection strategy with low statistical uncertainty. Resulting from this research project, a computational tool was developed. It is now possible to estimate NARX models from any field under fluid injection as well as finding the best future injection scenario

Immune protection against Trypanosoma cruzi induced by TcVac4 in a canine model

Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is endemic in southern parts of the American continent. Herein, we have tested the protective efficacy of a DNA-prime/T. rangeli-boost (TcVac4) vaccine in a dog (Canis familiaris) model. Dogs were immunized with two-doses of DNA vaccine (pcDNA3.1 encoding TcG1, TcG2, and TcG4 antigens plus IL-12- and GMCSF- encoding plasmids) followed by two doses of glutaraldehyde-inactivated T. rangeli epimastigotes (TrIE); and challenged with highly pathogenic T. cruzi (SylvioX10/4) isolate. Dogs given TrIE or empty pcDNA3.1 were used as controls. We monitored post-vaccination and post-challenge infection antibody response by an ELISA, parasitemia by blood analysis and xenodiagnosis, and heart function by electrocardiography. Post-mortem anatomic and pathologic evaluation of the heart was conducted. TcVac4 induced a strong IgG response (IgG2>IgG1) that was significantly expanded post-infection, and moved to a nearly balanced IgG2/IgG1 response in chronic phase. In comparison, dogs given TrIE or empty plasmid DNA only developed high IgG titers with IgG2 predominance in response to T. cruzi infection. Blood parasitemia, tissue parasite foci, parasite transmission to triatomines, electrocardiographic abnormalities were significantly lower in TcVac4-vaccinated dogs than was observed in dogs given TrIE or empty plasmid DNA only. Macroscopic and microscopic alterations, the hallmarks of chronic Chagas disease, were significantly decreased in the myocardium of TcVac4-vaccinated dogs.We conclude that TcVac4 induced immunity was beneficial in providing resistance to T. cruzi infection, evidenced by control of chronic pathology of the heart and preservation of cardiac function in dogs. Additionally, TcVac4 vaccination decreased the transmission of parasites from vaccinated/infected animals to triatomines.CONACYT PROY No. 156701 UAEM PROY No. 2381/2006U National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases http://www.niaid.nih.gov/Pages/ default.aspx GRANT NUMBER (AI072538) NJG; American Heart Association http://www.heart.org/ HEARTORG/ GRANT NUMBER (0855059F) to NJG

Early Tracheostomy for Managing ICU Capacity During the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Study

10 p.Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, shortages of ventilators and ICU beds overwhelmed health care systems. Whether early tracheostomy reduces the duration of mechanical ventilation and ICU stay is controversial. Research question: Can failure-free day outcomes focused on ICU resources help to decide the optimal timing of tracheostomy in overburdened health care systems during viral epidemics? Study design and methods: This retrospective cohort study included consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who had undergone tracheostomy in 15 Spanish ICUs during the surge, when ICU occupancy modified clinician criteria to perform tracheostomy in Patients with COVID-19. We compared ventilator-free days at 28 and 60 days and ICU- and hospital bed-free days at 28 and 60 days in propensity score-matched cohorts who underwent tracheostomy at different timings (≤ 7 days, 8-10 days, and 11-14 days after intubation). Results: Of 1,939 patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, 682 (35.2%) underwent tracheostomy, 382 (56%) within 14 days. Earlier tracheostomy was associated with more ventilator-free days at 28 days (≤ 7 days vs > 7 days [116 patients included in the analysis]: median, 9 days [interquartile range (IQR), 0-15 days] vs 3 days [IQR, 0-7 days]; difference between groups, 4.5 days; 95% CI, 2.3-6.7 days; 8-10 days vs > 10 days [222 patients analyzed]: 6 days [IQR, 0-10 days] vs 0 days [IQR, 0-6 days]; difference, 3.1 days; 95% CI, 1.7-4.5 days; 11-14 days vs > 14 days [318 patients analyzed]: 4 days [IQR, 0-9 days] vs 0 days [IQR, 0-2 days]; difference, 3 days; 95% CI, 2.1-3.9 days). Except hospital bed-free days at 28 days, all other end points were better with early tracheostomy. Interpretation: Optimal timing of tracheostomy may improve patient outcomes and may alleviate ICU capacity strain during the COVID-19 pandemic without increasing mortality. Tracheostomy within the first work on a ventilator in particular may improve ICU availability

Fluorescence explorer (FLEX): An optimised payload to map vegetation photosynthesis from space

The FLuorescence EXplorer (FLEX) mission proposes to launch a satellite for the global monitoring of steady-state chlorophyll fluorescence in terrestrial vegetation. Fluorescence is a sensitive probe of photosynthetic function in both healthy and physiologically perturbed vegetation, and a powerful non-invasive tool to track the status, resilience, and recovery of photochemical processes and moreover provides important information on overall photosynthetic performance with implications for related carbon sequestration. The early responsiveness of fluorescence to atmospheric, soil and plant water balance, as well as to atmospheric chemistry and human intervention in land usage makes it an obvious biological indicator in improving our understanding of Earth system dynamics. The amenability of fluorescence to remote, even space-basedobservation qualifies it to join the emerging suite of space-based technologies for Earth observation. FLEX would encompass a three-instrument array for measurement of the interrelated features of fluorescence, hyperspectral reflectance, and canopy temperature. FLEX would involve a space and ground-truthing program of 3-years duration and would provide data formats for research and applied science

Decoupling of soil nutrient cycles as a function of aridity in global drylands

The biogeochemical cycles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are interlinked by primary production, respiration and decomposition in terrestrial ecosystems. It has been suggested that the C, N and P cycles could become uncoupled under rapid climate change because of the different degrees of control exerted on the supply of these elements by biological and geochemical processes. Climatic controls on biogeochemical cycles are particularly relevant in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid ecosystems (drylands) because their biological activity is mainly driven by water availability. The increase in aridity predicted for the twenty-first century in many drylands worldwide may therefore threaten the balance between these cycles, differentially affecting the availability of essential nutrients. Here we evaluate how aridity affects the balance between C, N and P in soils collected from 224 dryland sites from all continents except Antarctica. We find a negative effect of aridity on the concentration of soil organic C and total N, but a positive effect on the concentration of inorganic P. Aridity is negatively related to plant cover, which may favour the dominance of physical processes such as rock weathering, a major source of P to ecosystems, over biological processes that provide more C and N, such as litter decomposition. Our findings suggest that any predicted increase in aridity with climate change will probably reduce the concentrations of N and C in global drylands, but increase that of P. These changes would uncouple the C, N and P cycles in drylands and could negatively affect the provision of key services provided by these ecosystems

Are rare species useful species? Obstacles to the conservation of tree diversity in the dry forest zone agro-ecosystems of Mesoamerica

Aim To test the potential to conserve rare dry forest tree and shrub species circa situm.Location Oaxaca, Mexico and Southern Honduras.Methods Local uses (timber, posts and firewood) of species were determined principally through semistructured interviews with 20 rural householders in each of four communities in Honduras and four in Oaxaca. Tree and shrub diversity inventories were carried out in a total of 227 forest patches and parcels of farmland in those eight communities. Species’ conservation priorities were determined using the star system of Hawthorne (1996) and IUCN listings.Results Despite a large number of useful species, remarkably few were also conservation priorities. Useful species were found to be substitutable as is illustrated by Bombacopsis quinata, Cordia alliodora, Guaiacum sanctum and G. coulteri.Conclusions In these areas, circa situm conservation is inhibited by the lack of species that are both rare and useful. Usefulness must be interpreted as a function of substitutability. Natural regeneration provides an abundance of diversity, farmers are unlikely to invest in the management of a species when suitable substitutes are freely available. The key to conserving rare species may be in maintaining or enhancing the value of the landscape elements in which they are found

Weaning from mechanical ventilation in intensive care units across 50 countries (WEAN SAFE): a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study

Background Current management practices and outcomes in weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation are poorly understood. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, management, timings, risk for failure, and outcomes of weaning in patients requiring at least 2 days of invasive mechanical ventilation. Methods WEAN SAFE was an international, multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study done in 481 intensive care units in 50 countries. Eligible participants were older than 16 years, admitted to a participating intensive care unit, and receiving mechanical ventilation for 2 calendar days or longer. We defined weaning initiation as the first attempt to separate a patient from the ventilator, successful weaning as no reintubation or death within 7 days of extubation, and weaning eligibility criteria based on positive end-expiratory pressure, fractional concentration of oxygen in inspired air, and vasopressors. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients successfully weaned at 90 days. Key secondary outcomes included weaning duration, timing of weaning events, factors associated with weaning delay and weaning failure, and hospital outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03255109. Findings Between Oct 4, 2017, and June 25, 2018, 10 232 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 5869 were enrolled. 4523 (77·1%) patients underwent at least one separation attempt and 3817 (65·0%) patients were successfully weaned from ventilation at day 90. 237 (4·0%) patients were transferred before any separation attempt, 153 (2·6%) were transferred after at least one separation attempt and not successfully weaned, and 1662 (28·3%) died while invasively ventilated. The median time from fulfilling weaning eligibility criteria to first separation attempt was 1 day (IQR 0–4), and 1013 (22·4%) patients had a delay in initiating first separation of 5 or more days. Of the 4523 (77·1%) patients with separation attempts, 2927 (64·7%) had a short wean (≤1 day), 457 (10·1%) had intermediate weaning (2–6 days), 433 (9·6%) required prolonged weaning (≥7 days), and 706 (15·6%) had weaning failure. Higher sedation scores were independently associated with delayed initiation of weaning. Delayed initiation of weaning and higher sedation scores were independently associated with weaning failure. 1742 (31·8%) of 5479 patients died in the intensive care unit and 2095 (38·3%) of 5465 patients died in hospital. Interpretation In critically ill patients receiving at least 2 days of invasive mechanical ventilation, only 65% were weaned at 90 days. A better understanding of factors that delay the weaning process, such as delays in weaning initiation or excessive sedation levels, might improve weaning success rates